The crystal ball

With the 2007 Major League Baseball season about to start, all the experts (or "experts") are submitting their start-of-year predictions.

I've done that in the past. My first journalistic-type experience was making baseball picks for our sixth-grade newspaper prior to the '74 season. I figured my favorite team at the time, the Phillies, would continue a four-year trend and finished last. They actually improved to third place, on their way to the best 10-year stretch in the team's history. And I chose the St. Louis Cardinals to end the Oakland A's two-year run as World Series champs. The A's, of course, made it three in a row, and the Cards didn't even make the playoffs.

I haven't done much better with the crystal ball since then, especially in the various fantasy leagues in which I've participated. My last year as champion was 1994.

Ouch.

But I'll give it a shot for 2007. Don't take any of this to Vegas!

American League East: 1) New York 2) Boston 3) Toronto 4) Tampa Bay 5) Baltimore

I've heard some predictions that the Yankees won't even qualify for the playoffs this year. But with George Steinbrenner (the real one, not the voice of Larry David) entering his late 70s, he just might authorize a spending spree to bring in high-priced ringers if the team is slow out of the gate. It's not like that hasn't happened before. Personally, I'd like to see someone besides New York and Boston in the top slots, but money talks.

American League Central: 1) Minnesota 2) Cleveland 3) Chicago 4) Detroit 5) Kansas City

I'll admit to being something of a fan of the Twins, who were the subject of contraction talks and possibly losing their franchise several years ago. Since then, they've consistently been in contention, although they could easily do like other teams, cry "small market!" and finish near the basement. I hate ranking the Tigers so low, but it should be very close between the top four. They get to beat up on the Royals all year.

American League West: 1) Los Angeles/Anaheim 2) Oakland 3) Texas 4) Seattle

Oakland is another small-market perennial contender, but the A's might have problems finishing ahead of a team that seems willing to write big checks. As for the Mariners, they tied the all-time record for wins in a season as recently as half a decade ago, but it's been a quick downward spiral from there.

National League East: 1) Atlanta 2) New York 3) Philadelphia 4) Florida 5) Washington

We can't have two straight years without the Braves qualifying for a brief playoff appearance. Both the Mets and Phillies have very shaky starting pitching, and Florida's youngsters are due for sophomore slumps. As for Washington, they have pools going in Florida on how many losses the Nationals will suffer, anywhere from 105 to a record-smashing 130.

National League Central: 1) St. Louis 2) Milwaukee 3) Cincinnati 4) Chicago 5) Houston 6) Pittsburgh

The Cardinals can surround Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter with a bunch of hefty slow-pitch softball players and still finish at the front of this mediocre pack. The Cubs spent more money this off-season than any team in history, including the Yankees, but they're still the Cubs. The Pirates might have one of the better pitching staffs in the division and sport what has to be an improved lineup, but they're still the Pirates.

National League West: 1) Los Angeles 2) Arizona 3) San Diego 4) Colorado 5) San Francisco

The top three spots should be competitive, but the Dodgers have what could be baseball's best starting rotation. The Diamondbacks are loaded with promising young players to complement Randy Johnson, who's almost my age. So is Barry Bonds, and he'll be too busy this summer with his own personal accomplishments to worry about how the rest of his team fares.

Wild cards: Cleveland and Arizona

World Series: One for Joe Torre's thumb. I mean, it's been seven years since the Yankees won it all. We're due for a depressing October.

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Trivia question 4: In what year did the Yankees win their first World Series? Scroll down to see answer at right.