It's amazing that sports talk shows lately have stirred up far more of a buzz about the finale of "The Sopranos" than the imminent fall of Henry Aaron's career major-league home run record.
I'm still trying to figure out what "The Sopranos" has to do with sports, but the lack of interest in Barry Bonds is easy to explain. Outside of San Francisco, no one seems to like him. (Pittsburgh's top-rated sports-talk host, Mark Madden of ESPN radio, professes on the air to love Barry, but I suspect that has more to do with riling his audience.)
The atmosphere certainly was different at the start of the 1974 season, with Aaron just one homer behind Babe Ruth. Even in those days before pervasive sports/entertainment, Hank's chase was right up there with Watergate on the news front. True, Aaron received quite a bit of hate mail from racists, but most clear-minded American sports enthusiasts were genuinely excited about him setting the record.
As far as Bonds is concerned, a lot of the talk about him passing Aaron has to do with the reassurance that the new record probably won't last long.
Exhibit A is Alex Rodriguez, who is far more likable than Bonds but still seems to have plenty of PR problems. Maybe that will change if he gets away from New York. In the meantime, he is putting up power numbers that have no precedent. He doesn't turn 32 until next month, by which time he very well might be sitting on 500 career home runs. Aaron had 442 homers at a comparable age and Bonds, 334.
Exhibit B is Albert Pujols, who started hitting well during his very first major-league series at Coors Field at the start of 2001, and hasn't stopped. (He's supposed to be having an "off" year in '07, but is up over .300 and is on pace for 38 round-trippers.) At 27, he also is ahead of Aaron and Bonds at the same age.
Click here for cumulative home run totals by age for Aaron, Bonds, Rodriguez and Pujols.
Before we go anointing either Rodriguez or Pujols as a sure thing, let's think this through:
• Aaron was remarkably durable for two decades, never suffering a major injury and not dropping to part-time status until he was over 40. He also was remarkably consistent after finding his power stroke and continued to be among the league's top sluggers into his late 30s. While neither Rodriguez nor Pujols have lost significant time to injury yet, keep one name in mind: Ken Griffey Jr.
• Bonds was very durable, as well, until his knees derailed him for most of 2005. As far as consistency, he became a productive hitter in 1990 and remains so, comparatively, today. But as far as his power numbers go, he started to catch up with Aaron during an era that -- for whatever reason -- produced far more home runs than any other point in baseball history. The pendulum might start swinging the other way by the time the careers of Rodriguez and Pujols start to wind down.
(Aaron, by the way, played much of his career under conditions that favored pitchers. His power numbers apparently were helped, though, when the Braves moved from Milwaukee's County Stadium to Atlanta's Fulton County "Launching Pad.")
• Rodriguez is the highest-paid player in baseball history. One day, Pujols might be. With so much money in the bank, will they want to extend their careers as long as Aaron and Bonds? Again, if Rodriguez gets out of the spotlight of the New York tabloids, he might want to hang around a little while longer.
Then again, we can do some simple extrapolation to come up with future totals for Rodriguez and Pujols.
Let's say A-Rod plays until 2015, when he turns 40. And let's say he matches his career high with 57 home runs in 2007 (which, by the way, would tie him with Ted Williams at 521). If he were to average 35 home runs during his final eight seasons, he'd finish with 801.
Let's say Albert plays until 2020, when he's 40. And let's say he does finish 2007 with 38 home runs (which, by the way, would tie him with Del Ennis at 288). If he were to average 38 per year the rest of the way, he'd rack up 782 for his career.
If all goes as expected, both those totals should rank ahead of Bonds when all is said and done.
I'd like to add my own nomination for a potential all-time home run king.
Prince Fielder turned 23 last month and so far has 56 home runs, which doesn't even put him on the charts with the other four I've mentioned. But he is on pace to hit nearly 60 this year, and he has the pedigree: His father, Cecil, was the only American Leaguer between Maris/Mantle and the '90s homer surge to hit more than 50 dingers in a season.
Dad tended to put on quite a bit of weight around the middle, though, and Prince is already listed at 260 pounds. If he keeps that as muscle, he might be making a run for the record around 2025.
Trivia question 42: Society for American Baseball Research trivia gurus Bruce Brown and Scott Brandon send out a weekly list, and I thought I'd share a few. This week's theme, by the way is All-Star third basemen.
Which player hit the most HR in the decade of the 1980s? (Answer at bottom right)(Bruce, by the way, says: "We believe that the word 'trivia' is misleading. Quality trivia is never trivial, but meaningful; symmetrical; unique, where possible; poetic; but most of all, interesting. We might not always do THAT well every time, but everybody seems to have fun."
